Introduction to US Electoral College Stable States Maps
Stable states or districts often receive less attention than swing states, which switch sides often. A focus on the margins of victory in stable states, defined here as states won by the same party in each of 2016, 2020, and 2024, however, can provide insights into the robustness of the election winner's victory and also highlight potential shifts on the horizon. Below are three charts focused on such margins followed by links to maps focused on 2016, 2020, and 2024 margins for these stable states.
- The first chart shows Democrat and Republican average margin of victory in their respective stable states for the 2016, 2020, and 2024 Presidential Elections
- The second chart shows Democrat and Republican weighted average margin of victory in their respective stable states for 2016, 2020, and 2024 -- with each margin weighted relative to the 538 total electoral votes
- The third chart shows the Democrat and Republican popular vote percentages (including all states) for the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections
In all cases the margins being referred to are either the Democrat or Republican margins over the other and without any reference or focus on any other party. Margins for Maine and Nebraska, both of which allocate some electoral votes based on victory in a specific district, only reflect state wide vote tallies.
The following links lead to maps for the 2016, 2020, and 2024 Presidential Elections and each of the maps show the Republican or Democrat margin. Please review the Sources and Methodology for a detailed discussion of the data and calculations.